140.611.01 – Statistical Reasoning in Public Health I
First Term, AY 2013-2014

# Statistical Reasoning in Public Health I Syllabus

140.611.01 | AY 2013-2014 - 1st Term | 3 Credit(s)
TTh 10:30:00 AM
• Contact Information
Faculty
• Course Description
Provides a broad overview of biostatistical methods and concepts used in the public health sciences, emphasizing interpretation and concepts rather than calculations or mathematical details. Develops ability to read the scientific literature to critically evaluate study designs and methods of data analysis. Introduces basic concepts of statistical inference, including hypothesis testing, p-values, and confidence intervals. Topics include comparisons of means and proportions; the normal distribution; regression and correlation; confounding; concepts of study design, including randomization, sample size, and power considerations; logistic regression; and an overview of some methods in survival analysis. Draws examples of the use and abuse of statistical methods from the current biomedical literature.
• Course Learning Objectives

Upon successfully completing this course, students will be able to:

• Provide examples of different types of data arising in public health studies
• Explain the basic differences between different study designs for comparing populations
• Recognize the issue of confounding when interpreting results from non-randomized studies
• Interpret differences in data distributions via visual displays
• Explain the difference between a sample and a population
• Calculate standard normal scores and resulting probabilities
• Calculate and interpret confidence intervals for population means and proportions and incident rates using data from single samples
• Compute the mean difference and explain why a mean difference can be used to quantify differences in a continuous measure between two samples (and ultimately two populations)
• Compute risk differences, relative risks and odds ratios
• Compare, contrast, and interpret relative risks and odds ratios when comparing binary outcomes between two populations
• Compute incidence rates and incidence rate ratios
• Construct, and interpret, Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survival function that describes the "survival experience" of a cohort of subjects
• Explain and unify the concept of a confidence interval whether it be for a single population quantity, or a comparison of populations
• Compute confidence intervals for population mean differences, difference in proportions, relative risks, odds ratios and incidence rate ratios
• Explain why computations for ratios are performed on the (natural) log scale
• Explain and unify the concept of a hypothesis testing for comparing measures between two (or more) populations
• Perform hypothesis tests for populations comparisons
• Interpret p-values from t-tests and analysis of variance (ANOVA) for mean differences between populations
• Interpret p-values from z-tests, chi-square tests and Fisherâ€™s Exact test for comparing proportions between populations
• Interpret p-values from z-tests, and log-rank tests for comparing time-to-event outcomes between populations
• Explain the role of sample size in determining margin of error (confidence interval width)
• Compute the necessary sample size(s) to obtain a desired margin of error
• Explain the factors that determine the statistical power of a study designed to compare two or more populations
• Methods of Assessment and Due Dates

Four Homework Assignments  (12.5% each, for a total of 50%)

Homework 1: Due 9/12/13, 11:59 pm
Homework 2:Due  9/26/13, 11:59 pm
Homework 3:Due  10/10/13, 11:59 pm
Homework 4:Due  10/22/13, 11:59 pm

Three Quizzes (10% each for a total of 30%)
Quiz 1: Available 9/17/13 2:00 PM through 9/19/13 11:59 PM
Quiz 2: Available 10/1/13 2:00 PM through 10/3/13 11:59 PM
Quiz 3: Available 10/15/13 2:00 PM through 10/17/13 11:59 PM

Final Exam (20%)
Available 10/24/13 12:01 AM through 10/27/13 11:59 PM

All homework assignments, quizzes and the final exam will be submitted through the Quiz Generator application in Courseplus.

• Instructor Bio

• Required Text(s)
There is no required textbook: please see the "Recommended Textbooks" section for textbook based references available electronically (via the Welch library electronic textbooks) .
• Assignment Descriptions and Guidelines

The course will have four homework assignments.  These exercises are designed to reinforce the main ideas presented in thecourse lecture materials, and as such are vital part of the learning process.

Each assignments will consist of  an "automatically graded" portion and a "human graded" portion.  This will allow for students to get some instant feedback on the assignments (automatic grading) , and yet anwer questions that are more open ended and interpretive in nature as well ("human graded").  The expected grading turnaround for the "human grading" portion is 5 days.  All assignments will be submitted via the course Quiz Generator application, in Coursplus.

A couple of important facts about class homeworks.

1) You may work together on these assignments, but please submit them on your own.

2) Because of the short term and number of students in the class, late assignment submissions cannot be accepted.

3) Each of the four assignments is 12.5% of the class grade, and as such, the four assignments make up 50% of the entire course grade. I make homework such a large component of the class grade because it is vital to the learning process, and does not make the course grade so heavily dependent on exams. In turn I expect you to treat these assignments seriously and respect the deadlines.

• Exam Format

Each of the quizzes and the final exam will be admiinistered online via the Quiz Generator application in Courseplus.

Students will have a two-day window in which to complete each of the three quizzes, and a three day window for completion of the final exam.

Each quiz will consist of 10-15 multiple choice questions, and the final exam will have on the order of 20 multiple choice questions.

The quizzes and exams will be closed book, but you are allowed to have a calculator, blank paper, and a formula sheet (which I will provide nia advance) with you while you sit for the quiz/exam.

You may not collaborate on quizzes or exams - you are expected to do the exams and quizzes by yourself and not discuss these exams and quizzes with anyone else, including those outside of the class, until the results have been released and the solutions posted.

• Recommended Text/Materials

There are no required texts for the course.  For many of the course lectures, however, I will recommend some readings from some of the following electronic texts (available through Welch Library):

Ambrosius W: Topics in Biostatistics http://www.springerprotocols.com/BookToc/doi/10.1007/978-1-59745-530-5

Dawson B, Trap R: Basic & Clinical Biostatistics www.accessmedicine.com.ezproxy.welch.jhmi.edu/resourceTOC.aspx?resourceID=62

Gauch R. It's Great! Oops, No It Isn't: Why Clinical Research Can't Guarantee the Right Medical Answers  link.springer.com.ezproxy.welch.jhmi.edu/book/10.1007/978-1-4020-8907-7/page/1

Kestenbaum B:  Epidemiology and Biostatistics: An Introduction to Clinical Research  http://link.springer.com.ezproxy.welch.jhmi.edu/book/10.1007/978-0-387-88433-2/page/1

• Office Hours

Office hours  will commence on Tuesday, November 5, 2013.

The schedule for office hours is as follows:

Tuesday 12:15-1:15, Room  W4007
Tuesday 5-6 pm, Room W2033

Wednesday 12:15-1:15, Room W4007

Thursday 12:15-1:15, Room W4007
Thursday 5-6 pm, Room W2033

• Office Hours

Office hours  will commence on Tuesday, September 10 2013.

The schedule for office hours is as follows:

Tuesday 12:15-1:15, Room  W4007*
Tuesday 5-6 pm, Room W2033

Wednesday 12:15-1:15, Room W4007*

Thursday 12:15-1:15, Room W4007*
Thursday 5-6 pm, Room W2033

* During the week of 9/16, the 12:15-1:15 office hours will be held in Room W4013.

• Teaching Assistants

Stephen Cristiano, Carrie Epstein, Sarah Naeger, Prasad Patil,  and Shuo Xi.

• Use of cell phones and laptops during class

Respect and treat other students and the instructor as you expect to be treated.  If you find it impossible to forgo constant Facebooking, tweeting or web surfing during class, and/or anticipate spending a majority of class time visibly asleep, please consider registering for the online section.

• Academic Ethics and Student Conduct Code

Students enrolled in the Bloomberg School of Public Health of The Johns Hopkins University assume an obligation to conduct themselves in a manner appropriate to the University's mission as an institution of higher education. A student is obligated to refrain from acts which he or she knows, or under the circumstances has reason to know, impair the academic integrity of the University. Violations of academic integrity include, but are not limited to: cheating; plagiarism; knowingly furnishing false information to any agent of the University for inclusion in the academic record; violation of the rights and welfare of animal or human subjects in research; and misconduct as a member of either School or University committees or recognized groups or organizations.

Students should be familiar with the policies and procedures specified under Policy and Procedure Manual Student-01 (Academic Ethics), available on the schoolâ€™s http://my.jhsph.edu portal.

The faculty, staff and students of the Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Johns Hopkins University have the shared responsibility to conduct themselves in a manner that upholds the law and respects the rights of others. Students enrolled in the School are subject to the Student Conduct Code (detailed in Policy and Procedure Manual Student-06) and assume an obligation to conduct themselves in a manner which upholds the law and respects the rights of others. They are responsible for maintaining the academic integrity of the institution and for preserving an environment conducive to the safe pursuit of the School's educational, research, and professional practice missions.

• Office Hours

Office hours  will commence on Tuesday, November 5, 2013.

The schedule for office hours is as follows:

Tuesday 12:15-1:15, Room  W4007
Tuesday 5-6 pm, Room W2033

Wednesday 12:15-1:15, Room W4007
Thursday 12:15-1:15, Room W4007
Thursday 5-6 pm, Room W2033

• Teaching Assistants

Stephen Cristiano, Carrie Epstein, Sarah Naeger, Prasad Patil,  and Shuo Xi.

• Course Assignments and Grading Policy

Three Homework Assignments  (16% each, for a total of 48%)

Three Quizzes (11% each for a total of 33%)

Final Exam (19%)

An “A” is guaranteed if the cumulative average >= 90%.

A “B” is guaranteed if the cumulative average >= 80% but < 90%.

A “C” is guaranteed if the cumulative average >= 65% but < 80%.

• Narrated and Annotated Lecture Slides

• Assignment amd Quiz/Exam Due Dates

HW1   due 11/7 11:59 pm
Quiz 1  11/12-11/14
HW2   due 11/21 11:59 pm
Quiz 2  11/26-11/27
HW3 due 12/5  11:59 pm
Quiz 3 12/10-12/12
Quiz 4 (Final Quiz) 12/19-12/22

• Teaching Assistants

Stephen Cristiano, Carrie Epstein, Sarah Naeger, Prasad Patil,  and Shuo Xi.

• Disability Support Services
If you are a student with a documented disability who requires an academic accommodation, please contact the Office of Disability Support Services at 410-502-6602 or via email at JHSPH.dss@jhu.edu.