METHODS AND MEASURES IN POPULATION STUDIES Syllabus

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Welcome Message
Introduction: The average number of births per women (TFR) in the USA in the year 2011 was 1.98, but how is this related to the actual average number of children that women aged 15 in 2011 will have? In a developing country with high fertility (above 3 children per woman), why would population keep growing in a scenario where fertility suddenly drops to replacement level of about 2.1 children per women? The fact that the population of the world keeps growing is well known, but how many people will be over 65 years of age and how many nursing homes will be needed in 2050? How many would be under 15 years and will need schooling in 2050?
Overview: Ways to answer these questions are addressed in this course. Emphasizes is put on the theoretical concepts underlying the methodology of population projections and stable population models, as well as the practice of estimating demographically meaningful results. . Course materials are presented interactively, allowing students to gain handson experience in working with measures of fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce, and become familiar with the types of research that can be based on them.

Course Learning Objectives
Upon successfully completing this course, students will be able to:
 Calculate and interpret fertility, migration, marriage and divorce measures and concepts as well as measure their tempo effects
 Construct, know assumptions behind, and interpret population projections.
 Understand stable population theory, and know its advantages and disadvantages, compared with other demographic models.
 Use the ChandraSekar Deming method

Course DescriptionCovers six areas regarding population studies including: population composition, fertility, migration, population projections, an introduction to stable populations, and measures of population health. Draws examples from data from both developed and developing countries.

Course Objectives(from old syllabus)
Objectives: Students will be able to:
 Calculate and interpret fertility, migration, marriage and divorce measures and concepts as well as measure their tempo effects
 Construct, know assumptions behind, and interpret population projections.
 Understand stable population theory, and know its advantages and disadvantages, compared with other demographic models.
 Use the ChandraSekar Deming method
Course Outline:
The course will start with one session of review of basic demographic rates used to measure demographic phenomena and a review of life tables. One class on measures of migration follows, and then two classes will be dedicated to the study of fertility. A lecture on tempo effects in fertility, marriage & divorce, and mortality is then presented. Population projections and stable population models are then presented; these are particularly interesting to quantify a demographic change. Students will be able to see how their basic mathematics from college (calculus and matrices) are used in demography.

Intended AudienceMasters and Doctoral students interested in Population Studies

Methods of Assessment
Grade will be based on:
 Class participation & Quizzes (20%)
 Completion of exercises (30%)
 2 Exams (50%)

Introduction
The average number of births per women (TFR) in the USA in the year 2007 was 2.05, but is this the actual average number of children that women aged 15 in 2007 will have? In a developing country with high fertility (above 3 children per woman), why would population keep growing in a scenario where fertility suddenly drops to replacement level of about 2.1 children per women? The fact that the population of the world keeps growing is well known, but how many people will be over 65 years of age and how many nursing homes will be needed in 2050? How many would be under 15 years and will need schooling in 2050?

Prerequisites
380.650 Fundamentals of Life Tables and 380.600 Principles of Population Change are highly recommended.
380.603 “Demographic Methods in Public Health”, 380.600 “Principles of Population Change” and 380.650 “Fundamentals of Life Tables” are highly recommended but are not required. The mathrefresher course offered during the winter term could also be useful for students planning to take “Methods and Measures in Demography”.

Course Schedule
Please see the course Session for a full list of dates and items for this course.

Required Text(s)
Course text: Our main reference book is the book by Preston et al, but we complement this with some chapters from the old Shryock and Siegel book or newer Siegel and Swanson book and articles
List of Suggested Readings by Lecture.
Lecture 1
 S.H. Preston, P. Heuveline and M. Guillot, Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Oxford: Blackwell. 2001. 291 pp. Chapters 23
Lecture 2
 H S. Shryock and J.S. Siegel. The Methods and Materials of Demography. United States Department of Commerce Publication. 1971. P 374376(top); 393(“In out..”) and 394(1^{st} col)
OR Siegel and Swanson (2004). The Methods and Materials of Demography. Elsevier. Pages 472478.
Lecture 3
 Preston et al. (2001). Chapter 5.
 Kitagawa, E. (1955). Components of a difference between two rates” JASA 50(272):11681194 (for reference only; we will do the math in class)
Lecture 4
 Preston et al. (2001). Pp. 101112.
Lecture 5
 Bongaarts, J. and Fenney, G. 1998. “On the quantum and tempo of fertility” Population and Development Review 24:27191.
 Schoen, Robert. (2004). Timing Effects and the Interpretation of Period Fertility. Demography 41(4): 801819
 Schoen, R. and V. CanudasRomo. (2006). Timing Effects on Divorce: 20th Century Experience in the United States.” Journal of Marriage and Family 68( 3): 749  758
 Schoen, R. and V. CanudasRomo. (2005). “Timing effects on first marriage: Twentiethcentury experience in England and Wales and the USA.” Population Studies 59( 2): 135  146
Lecture 67
 Preston et al. (2001). Chapter 6
Lecture 8
 Preston et al. (2001). Chapter 7
 Espenshade, T. J., A. S. Olgiati, and S. A. Levin. 2011. On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum. Demography 48(4): 15811599.
 L. Blue and Espenshade, T. J. 2011. Population Momentum Across the Demographic Transition,” Population and Development Review 37(4): 721747
 Keyfitz, N. (1971) “On the momentum of population growth”. Demography 8(1):7180.
Lecture 9
 H S. Shryock and J.S. Siegel. The Methods and Materials of Demography. United States Department of Commerce Publication. 1971. P 336338; 345346.
OR
Siegel and Swanson The Methods and Materials of Demography. 2004. Pp 196top 202.
Lecture 10
 Preston et al. (2001). Chapter 8
Lecture 11
 Siegel and Swanson (2004). Skim pp 539546(left col); read 546 (“Trend extrapolation”) to 551.
Lecture 12
 Chandra Sekar and Deming. 1949. "On a method of estimating birth and death rates and the extent of registration." JASA, 44(145):101115.
Lecture 13 TBA
Lecture 14 TBA

Each Week
Our course schedule

Course Outline
The course will start with one session of review of basic demographic rates used to measure demographic phenomena. One class on marriage and divorce measures follows, and two more classes will be dedicated to the particular study of fertility. Along with these first classes on fertility, students will have computer lab sessions with data. A new lecture on tempo effects in fertility, marriage & divorce, and mortality is presented. The rest of the course follows the same combination of theoretical class and practical hands on data sessions. Population projections and stable population models are particularly interesting to learn by trying to quantify a demographic change. Students will be able to see how their basic mathematics from college (calculus and matrices) are used in demography.

Course topics
Class outline will be handed out in class on first day and will be available in class materials.

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